Question Details

The Accuweather Corporation manufactures barometers 



1.	The Accuweather Corporation manufactures barometers and thermometers for weather forecasters. In an attempt to forecast its future needs for mercury, Accuweather's chief economist estimated average monthly mercury needs as:

          N = 500 + 10X

where N = monthly mercury needs (units) and X = time period in months (January 2008= 0). The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated using data from the past five years:

Month	Adjustment Factor
January	  15%
April	  10%
July	20%
September	    5%
December	10%

(a)	Forecast Accuweather's mercury needs for January, April, July, September, and December of 2010.
(b)	The following actual and forecast values of mercury needs in the month of November have been recorded:
	
	Year	Actual	Forecast	
	2008	456	480	
	2009	324	360	
	2007	240	240	

What seasonal adjustment factor should the firm use for November?
2.	Milner Brewing Company experienced the following monthly sales (in thousands of barrels) during 2010:

Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June
100	92	112	108	116	116

(a)	Develop 2-month moving average forecasts for March through July.
(b)	Develop 4-month moving average forecasts for May through July.
(c)	Develop forecasts for February through July using the exponential smoothing method (with w = .5). Begin by assuming  .




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