Question Details

MANAGEMENT 306-03                     FINAL EXAMINATION  	                                     Fall 2013        (SHOW ALL WORK OR NO CREDIT WILL BE GIVEN) 
1. (20 points)
a. Using simple exponential smoothing, Mace- small business made a forecast in April of $40,000 sales. In May, Mace- actually sold $60,000. The company now wants to use an exponential smoothing forecasting function with the highest noise dampening among  =0.2,  =0.4,  =0.6 to forecast June sales. Can you? If yes, do so. If you cannot, state what additional information is needed. (5 points)         






b. The quarterly sales for a specific business software package, over the past two years, is as follows:       Compute the seasonal indexes.            Quarter1     Quarter 2     Quarter 3     Quarter 4        
    (5 pts)                                 Year 2002       1690           940              2625           2500          
                                               Year 2003       1800           900              2900           2360            








c. The trend portion of quarterly sales, in 1000s of units, for MEMEX company is given as:                    TR = -0.40 + 1.0t   Sales also exhibit seasonal variations. The seasonal indices are 1.2, 0.9, 1.3, 1.0 for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters respectively. Assume that the cyclical index is 1.0 and that the random factor has no influence on the forecast. If t = 1 at the first quarter of 2009, how many thousands of units should the company expect to sell during the 1st and 4th quarters of 2014?         
(1) Use the full Decomposition Method. (4 pts); (2) Use only the Trend Projection Method. (3pts); 
(3) What is the quarterly seasonal influence, in units, for each of those two quarters? (3 pts)





















2. (20 points)
There are 5 cars which must be serviced at the SPEED- automobile service center. SPEED- does Body Work, Oil Changes, and Tune-ups. The shop is organized so that Body Work is always done before changing the oil (if needed), and Oil Change is done prior to any Tune-up (if needed). The cars are to be serviced as follows:
                     Operation 
Car I.D.    Service Time(hours)      DUE DATE   Arrival 
               Body     Oil-      Tune       (hours)     Order
               Work  Change   -Up                                 
   A  ------   0         2          3 -----------8 --------- 3rd  
   B  ------   4         0          2 -----------12 -------- 1st   
   C  ------   2         2          0 -----------5   -------- 4th
   D ------    0         4          2 -----------8  -------- 2nd
   E  ------   3         3          0 -----------13 -------- 5th
If multiple cars are waiting to be served at the same operation, at any point in time, the manager wants to use FCFS (first-come-first-served) to determine which car has processing priority at that particular operation. Process these jobs (8 points) and determine: (a)The average length of time that a car remains at SPEED-? (b)The total time each car must spend waiting for service? (c)On average, how many cars you would expect to find at SPEED-, at any point in time, while the center is operating; assume that, upon completion, each car immediately leaves the service center. (d)On average, how late is a car delivered to its owner. (3 points each)

































3. (20 points)
The assembly of MBM's 56K Converter requires that 9 tasks be performed, as listed below. How should these tasks be grouped into work-stations, if the weekly demand for converters is 360 units, and the plant operates for 20 productive hours each week, 60 minutes each hour? MBM- work-week has 4 equally long days. Use Largest Task Time as the primary, Largest # of Successors as the secondary, and Alphabetic Order as the tertiary priority rules. Clearly show the number and task content of each work-station.

         Immediate        Task Time            Immediate       Task Time
Task Predecessor(s) (minutes)    Task Predecessor(s) (minutes)
A                -                    1.0             F            C                   1.0
B                A                   1.0             G         D,E,F                 1.0
C                A                   2.0             H            B                    2.0
D                C                   1.0             I           G,H                  1.0
E                C                   3.0       

Balance the Line and determine its: (a) Cycle Time; (b) Output; (c) Efficiency; (d) Total Idle Time, in hours, for the week.   




































4. (40 points)      TRUE/FALSE & Multiple Choice (2 points each); 15,16,17,18 (3 points each)       
1.  A CPM diagram is a very useful tool for scheduling work in a general job shop.
2.  The Cycle Time determines the largest amount of work which may be assigned to any work station.    3.  When an assembly line is balanced, all work stations must have the same amount of work assigned.
4.  The Mean Utilization in a 2-machine Flow Shop, must be 100%, under classroom assumptions.
5.  A larger alpha makes the exponential smoothing forecast more accurate.
6.  Low-impulse-response moving average forecasting functions have large APs. 
7.  The Cycle Time is the maximum time that can elapse between the completion of successive units of         the assembled product.
8.  What is the approximate forecast for May using a 4-month moving average?
     Nov.   Dec.   Jan.   Feb.   Mar.   Apr.
     39      36      40     38      48      46
     a. 38    b.  41    c.  42    d.  43    e.  46
9.  If the sum of the task times required to make one unit of product “K” is 11 minutes, and the desired        cycle time is 2 minutes, then 22 work stations will be needed.
10. A natural drink manufacturer- sales department has developed a linear trend equation that can be 
     used to forecast annual sales of its popular Gynseg Juice: Y  = 80.0 + 15.0t ; where Y  = annual 
     sales in thousands of bottles. The annual increase in sales is: 
     a.  80.0   b. 95.0 thousand   c.  95.0   d.  15.0 thousand   e.  65.0 thousand
11. Which of the following circumstances would cause a forecaster to consider increasing the size of the         smoothing constant @?
a.	the most recent demand is more representative than the older past demand
b.	there is an upward trend in the data
c.	there is a downward trend in the data   d.   all of the above
12. Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, the mean absolute deviation is?
      a.  2    b.  3    c.  4    d.  8    e. 16   f. none of the above
13. The primary purpose of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to:-
a.	estimate the trend line               c.   measure forecast accuracy
b.	eliminate forecast errors             d.  seasonally adjust the forecast    e.   all of the above     
14. If two variables were perfectly correlated, the correlation coefficient, “r”, would equal:-
      a.  0.0   b.  less than 1.0   c.  exactly 1.0   d.  -1.0 or +1.0   e.  greater than 1.0  

DATA for Multiple Choice Questions 15, 16, and 17 
Job I.D.   Processing Time(hours)  Due Date(hours)   Job I.D. Processing Time(hours)  Due Date(hours)
    A                     2                              4                     D                     4                             14 
    B                     5                             18                     E                     6                             20
    C                     3                              8                      F                     4                             24

15. Using the Critical Ratio rule, the following jobs must be processed in this order:
      a.  A-C-E-D-B-F    b.  F-B-D-E-C-A    c.  A-B-C-D-E-F   d.  A-C-D-F-B-E             
16. The EDD sequence for the jobs is:
      a.  A-B-C-D-E-F    b.  A-C-D-B-E-F    c.  A-C-D-F-B-E   d.  A-C-E-D-B-F
17. The Mean Utilization for this operation, using the EDD sequence, is:
      a.  76%   b.  42%   c.  100%   d.  none of the above

18. Using Johnson- rule, in what sequence should we process these 5 orders in a 2-machine flow shop:
      Order  Processing Time estimates (hours)      Order  Processing Time estimates (hours)  
       I.D.        Printing     Binding                          I.D.        Printing     Binding
        AZ             6             4                                DY             7              4
        BX             3             5                                EW            4              3  
        CV             2             3
   
a. CV-BX-DY-AZ-EW  b. BX-DY-AZ-EW-CV  c. CV-EW-AZ-BX-DY  d. CV-BX-AZ-DY-EW  e. either “a” or “d”.