Question Details

MAT 540
MIDTERM
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters
inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously. 
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. 
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Answer 			
The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
Consider the following frequency of demand: 
 
             
 
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Answer 			
A seed value is a(n)
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Answer 
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Consider the following graph of sales. 
 
 
 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer 			
 	Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 
             
 
 If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Answer 
rob
 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:  
 
Yield, bushels per acre	Probability
350	.10
400	.18
450	.50
500	.22

 
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
 
What is the expected yield of the crop?
 	__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer 
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer 
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer 
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. 
             
Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.
 
             
 
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
 	An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
 
                                            Economic Condition
                        Poor           Average       Good        Excellent
    Investment      (S1)              (S2)           (S3)          (S4)
           A               50                  75              20              30
           B               80                  15              40              50
           C           -100                 300             -50              10      
           D               25                  25              25              25  
 
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Answer 
he local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. 
 
                         
 
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
Consider the following distribution and random numbers:
 
 
If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
 
                      Year    Demand           Forecast
2001	16	18
2002	20	19
2003	18	24
           
 
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 
             
 
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
 
                        Year    Demand           Forecast
2001	16	18
2002	20	19
2003	18	24
Answer 
 	Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 
Year	Sales
2001	2
2002	4
2003	10
2004	8
2005	14
2006	18
2007	17
2008	20

 
 
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Answer 
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. 
 
             
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
 	The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product 
 
Month	Actual Demand
March	20
April	25
May	40
June	35
July	30
August	45

 
 
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Answer 
 	The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
 
             
 
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Answer 
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
 	The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : 
 
Year	Sales	Forecast
2003	7	9
2004	12	10
2005	14	15
2006	20	22
2007	16	18
2008	25	21

 
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
 
Answer