MAT/540 MAT540 MAT 540 WEEK 5 Midterm Exam

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

A seed value is a(n)

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
 

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
 
           
 
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
 

 
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
 

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 

 
 
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
 

 
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
 

 
 
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
 
                        Year    Demand           Forecast

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
 
           
 
What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point. 

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
 

 
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.
 
           
 
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Consider the following demand and forecast.
 

 
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Consider the following graph of sales.
 
 

 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Consider the following graph of sales.
 

 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
           
 
 If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

 rob
 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 
 

 
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
 
What is the expected yield of the crop?

Consider the following decision tree.
 

 
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 
 
                       
 
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
 

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
 

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.