An analysis of First National Corporation & Edward Altman: Where Are We in the Credit Cycle?
Part 1: First National Corporation Analysis
Question 1:
- States certain things about bank,
- provide evidence to show ROA is decent and quite high.
- Provide evidence to show that deposit are at a cheap cost.
- Provide evidence to show that customer are good quality and write off is not high.
- Provide evidence of ROE is respectable.
- Provide evidence of that there is a change in industry due to competition. Many institutions is going on assets based standing.
- Find evidence that they may need to engage some external expertise to engage in this business.
- Provide evidence that is not in their line of fractions. Business relationship with customer is very good.
- Make use of data of customer in order to offer something new to them.
(Evidence to extract from given table analysis)
Question 2:
ROE = ROWN
- New business, a lot competition. Require extra cost to outsource external expertise. Thus ROA/ROE will not improve.
- Find evidence of higher cost, IMM, net interest margin, credit risk. New business = Low volume.
- How can ROA and ROE grow up? Talk about the volume.
Question 3:
Question 2 and 3 is linked Look at the balance sheet and liabilities. Liabilities are their deposit, composition and cost of liabilities. Should be able to see that there are huge deposit base at relatively Low cost. if cost of fund is Low, no pressure. Pressure is from outside the industry that is forcing them to do this. Get evidence from the deposit base!!
Question 4:
- Must have knowledge of the GFC, who are the people involve, how this GFC happen. Google/YouTube: Credit crisis visualise (11mins)
- Provide Some similarities and some differences. Same in what ways? Both involve collateral. In GFC properties housing loan is collateral. In FNC, look at the asset list, the bank asset is not only housing loan. Provide those evidence, risk exposure is different. Bank got many asset.Bank collect different kind of collateral. Give evidence.Another similarity is Bank in GFC faces lower profit margin thus pressure to do securitization. FNC squeeze and threaten by Low profit margins. Look at the data.How is it different? GFC died due to securitization. Bank does not have securitization. Bank go in traditional loan. Normal banking loan. Impact;GFC Impact everybody, bank, companies, public, jobBank impact shareholder, in-house. Another different, quality of customerFNC have very good quality (get evidence) customerGFC has lousy quality customer (all sub prime customer) Expertise: Are investor bank expert In securitization?
Conclusion: Make your judgement base on the evidence you have provide
Part B: Edward Altman: Where are we in the Credit Cycle?
- Talk about credit risk, using the financial statement.
- Can they give financing?
- Provide Vertical and horizontal analysis.
- Interpret Ratio analysis (leverage and liquidity) provide the consideration using data (Story telling to provide on why the data is that way)
- Input relevant info
- Direct – Plain Recording
- Indirect – Classification
- Ability to pay a loan should come from operating cash flows.
USA 
India