ACC544 - Decision SupportTools
Table of Contents
Subject Summary
Subject Coordinator
Subject Coordinator
Consultation procedures
Subject Overview
Abstract
Learning outcomes
Subject content
Key subjects
Subject Schedule & Delivery
Prescribed text
Class/tutorial times and location
Schedule
Learning materials
Learning, teaching and support strategies
Recommended student time commitment
Assessment Items
Essential requirements to pass this subject
Items
Assignment 1
Research Project
Assignment 3
Exam
Assessment Information
Academic integrity
Referencing
How to submit your assessment items
Online submission process
Postal submission process
Hand delivered submission process
Alternative submission process
Extensions
How to apply for special consideration
Penalties for late submission
Resubmission
Feedback processes
Assessment return
Student Feedback & Learning Analytics
Evaluation of subjects
Changes and actions based on student feedback
Learning analytics
Services & Support
Develop your study skills
Library Services
CSU Policies & Regulations
Subject Outline as a reference document
Subject Summary
ACC544 - Decision Support Tools Session 1 2019
Faculty of Business, Justice and Behavioural Sciences School of Accounting and Finance
Internal Mode Credit Points 8
Welcome to a new session of study at Charles Sturt University. Please refer to the University's Acknowledgement of Country (http://student.csu.edu.au/study/acknowledgement-of- country).
Subject Coordinator
Subject Coordinator To be advised
Consultation procedures
Any questions concerning the teaching of this subject can be made by contacting your Subject Lecturer.
Email is the best option. Please send a brief message regarding the issue and include the subject name and subject code in your email – it really helps to know which class you belong to, before I respond to your query. If your query is urgent then meet with your respective Course Coordinator at Level 4, 30 Church Lane.
Class times and location
General Timetable as below will be available at the following website before the start of 201860 semester, which can be accessed on any Mobile Phone or IPAD:
https://csutimetable.au.studygroup.com/Melbourne/
Subject Overview
Abstract
This subject focuses on the application of quantitative management tools to data analysis in order to assist management decision makers in organisations. It introduces relevant statistical, operations research and operations management techniques which can be used to enhance the ability of managers to make informed decisions. Use is made of computer software designed to support the decision making function.
Learning outcomes
Upon successful completion of this subject, students should:
- be able to demonstrate problem-solving skills in assessing, organising, summarising and interpreting relevant data for decision making purposes;
- be able to apply decision theory to business situations;
- be able to explain the use of simulation in complex decisions;
- be able to apply probability concepts to decision making;
- be able to demonstrate understanding of the application of statistical hypothesis testingto decisions, with particular emphasis on quality control and interpreting the significance of regression coefficients in cost estimation;
- be able to use accepted time-series forecasting methods;
- be able to apply cost-volume-profit analysis and linear programming to product mix decisions; and
- be able to solve scheduling
Subject content
The subject content consists of the 11 topics shown in the subject schedule.
Key subjects
Passing a key subject is one of the indicators of satisfactory academic progress through your course. You must pass the key subjects in your course at no more than two attempts. The first time you fail a key subject you will be at risk of exclusion; if you fail a second time you will be excluded from the course.
The Academic Progress Policy (https://policy.csu.edu.au/view.current.php?id=00250) sets out the requirements and procedures for satisfactory academic progress, for the exclusion of students who fail to progress satisfactorily and for the termination of enrolment for students who fail to complete in the maximum allowed time.
Subject Schedule &Delivery
Prescribed text
The textbooks required for each of your enrolled subjects can also be found via the Student Portal Textbooks (http://student.csu.edu.au/study/study-essentials/textbooks) page.
Render, B., Stair, R.M., Hanna, M.E., and Hale, T.S. Quantitative analysis for management, (2018), 13 edition Pearson.
Class/tutorial times andlocation
Your class times can be found at Timetable @ CSU (http://timetable.csu.edu.au/). Find out how to use Timetable @ CSU via the Student Portal Class Timetable (http://student.csu.edu.au/study/study-essentials/timetable) page.
Schedule
Schedule 2019-30
ACC544 Decision Support Tools
RSHH denotes Render, Stair, Hanna & Hale 13th edn, 2018. Online Topics refers to Interact Topics PDF files.
Week no. |
Commencing Monday |
Topic |
References |
MP4 Videos & Movies |
1 |
4 March |
1. Probability Concepts and Distributions Concepts of probability; Probability calculations and theorems; Populations and samples; Random variables; Probability distributions: discrete and continuous; Cumulative probability distributions: Uniform or rectangular probability distribution; Normal probability distribution: mean, standard deviation, calculation of probabilities using Z- scores; |
Online Topic 1 RSHH: Ch2:39-45, 48-53, 56-64, 70-72 (Solved problems excluding 2-7) |
Variance Calculation |
2 |
11 March |
2. Statistical Decision Making and Quality Control Statistical quality control; Statistical significance using sampling techniques and hypothesis testing using small and large samples; Statistical process control; Process improvement; Types of control charts; Total quality management (TQM); Continuous improvement and benchmarking. |
Online Topic 2 RSHH: Ch 15 |
You Tube demonstration movie |
3 |
18 March |
3.DecisionAnalysis:Uncertainty andRisk Steps in decision making; Types of decision making environments; Payoff matrix; Decision making under certainty; Decision making under complete uncertainty; Decision making under risk (or partial uncertainty); Sensitivity analysis; A decision tree approach as an alternative to payoff matrix; Utility theory and functions; Marginal analysis with discrete and normal distributions of demand. Using a spreadsheet for analysing decisions. Heuristics and biases employed in judgments under uncertainty. Assignment1dueTuesday19 March |
Online Topic 3 RSHH: Ch 3: 81-88, 90-92, 95-96, 104-109; Ch 6: 227-231 Reading 3.1: Tversky & Kahneman |
Decision analysis Pt 1 Decision analysis Pt 2 |
4 |
25 March |
4.DecisionAnalysis:Valueof Information Further Information prior to a decision; Expected value of perfect information (EVPI). Imperfect information and Bayesian revision of probabilities; Evaluating imperfect information – EVSI and ENGSI; Human Judgement versus Bayes' Theorem; Organisational use of Information; Role of accounting Information in decision making Using a spreadsheet for value of information. |
Online Topic 4 RSHH Ch2: 45-48, Ch 3: 88-90, 96-104 |
Value of information |
5 |
1 April |
5. Simulation for Complex Decisions What is simulation? Deterministic versus Stochastic simulation; A complex decision tree. Mechanics of simulation. A queuing example; An inventory ordering example; Using a spreadsheet for simulation |
Online Topic 5 RSHH: Ch13 |
Simulation |
6 |
8 April |
Midsession Break Assignment 2 due Tuesday 9 April |
||
7 |
15 April |
Midsession Break Good Friday 19 April |
||
8 |
22 April |
6. Correlation and Regression Analysis Correlation – meaning and range of values. Regression analysis applied to cost estimation; Types of cost behaviour; Nature of historical cost analysis; Estimation methods: account classification, High-low, scattergraph, ordinary least squares regression and multiple regression analysis; Learning curves. Using a spreadsheet for regression analysis Easter Monday 22 April Anzac Day 25 April |
Online Topic 6 RSHH: Ch 4 |
Regression 1 Regression 2 |
9 |
29 April |
7. Forecasting Techniques Time series, causal and qualitative models; Measures of forecast accuracy; Time series forecasting models: components of trend, seasonality, cycles and random variations; Moving averages; Weighted moving average; Exponential smoothing; Trend projections (linear trends using regression analysis); Seasonal variations; Decomposition methods with trend and seasonal factors; Monitoring and controlling forecasts. |
Online Topic 7 RSHH Ch 5 |
|
10 |
6 May |
8. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis Single product CVP analysis; Breakeven point and target level of profits in unit sales and sales dollars; Breakeven charts and financial risk; Multiple-product CVP analysis; CVP analysis under uncertainty – sales as a random variable; Limitations of CVP analysis. |
Online Topic 8 |
3 brief movies |
11 |
13 May |
9. Linear Programming Multiproduct CVP analysis with constraints; Linear Programming: profit maximisation and cost minimisation; Graphical solutions and Computer Spreadsheet solutions; Sensitivity analysis; Shadow prices; Throughput accounting and the Theory of Constraints Assignment 3 due Tuesday 14 May |
Online Topic 9 RSHH: Ch 7;( Ch 8 Optional) |
Lecture and demonstration |
12 |
20 May |
10. Inventory Control Purpose of Inventory; Control objectives Simple EOQ model; Reorder point; Model sensitivity; Quantity discounts; Safety Stock and reorder point; Overlapping orders; Just in Time (JIT) Systems |
Online Topic 10 RSHH: Ch 6 |
You Tube 17 min demonstration |
13 |
27 May |
11. Project Management using Network Analysis Phases in project management; Project networks; Origins of Network Analysis; Developing a network; Calculating project duration and crashing the network; Finding optimal project duration given indirect cost plus contract bonuses and penalties; Critical Path Method; Additional Features of PERT; Project Control |
Online Topic 11 RSHH Ch 11 |
You Tube demonstration |
14 |
3 June |
Revision |
||
15 |
10 June |
Examination Period: Monday 10 June Queen’s Birthday |
||
16 |
17 June |
Examination Period |
Learning materials
Details of learning materials that support your success in this subject can be found in the Interact2 Subject Site.
Learning, teaching and support strategies
In this subject we will meet for a 3 hour session where we will discuss that week’s topic. Before you come to class you need to have looked at the online activities in the Interact site. You should use the Online Resources provided in the Interact2 site to study this subject. You should open the Topics section and for each topic you will find a PDF file to be read. After particular sections of each PDF file you are directed to questions/problems to consolidate your learning. Your answers to these questions are computer marked as either correct or not, and answers are provided to all questions. There are no marks attached to these questions for assessment purposes, they are simply designed to help you with the topic material and to pass the exam. You may revisit these questions whenever you like.
In addition, there are Demonstration mp4/YouTube videos for most topics. You should play these as additional consolidation of your learning.
Also, you should read the relevant references to the textbook (Render, Stair, Hanna and Hale (2018) Quantitative Analysis for Management, 13 ed, Pearson). The textbook is also supported by a Companion Website containing problems and Excel QM (Excel Add In) and POM-QM for Windows software should prove useful.
Other resources may be placed in Student Resources during the session.
ThefirstassignmentcoversthefirsttwotopicsandisdueforsubmissioninWeek3 (worth10%ofthetotalassessmentinthesubject). Soyoushouldstartonthesubject material right from the beginning of session. It is designed to ensure that you are engaginginthesubjectcontent.
The modules for this subject have been written specifically to guide you through the sections (and questions) of the prescribed textbook relevant to each topic.
You should check the Interact2 Site at least weekly for postings, announcements, lecture information and other resources that will assist your studies or additional information and resources vital to your success in the subject.
Studying at university does not mean studying alone. During class you will have an opportunity to interact with the lecturer as well as your peers.
Use the subject schedule to plan your studies over the session.
Information on effective time management is available on the CSU Learning Support website via the following link: student.csu.edu.au.
Visit the Learning Support website for advice about assignment preparation, academic reading and note taking, referencing, effective time management and preparing for exams at: student.csu.edu.au. You can also contact an adviser through Student Central on the following number: 1800 275 278 (or +61 2 6933 7507 from outside Australia).
Queries regarding the content of this subject should be directed to your Subject Coordinator.
Library Services:
The CSU Library website provides access to online material and print, using Primo Search to find online journal articles, eBooks, hardcopy books from CSU Library (see Library Manager for Interlibrary Loan Requests), company & government reports, eJournals, dissertations, theses, newspapers including Business & Financial newspapers in Factiva (See Business & IT Journal Databases), and other reference resources (eg. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian standards, online encyclopaedias & dictionaries to be read on the computer). You will also find library guides, Subject Reserve for any readings eg. ITC100, ACC100, etc., and online assistance to help you use the Library's resources such as Ask a Librarian – Live Chat and Ask a Librarian - Web Form.
You can find Library Services on both the SGA library online catalogue: http://primo.unilinc.edu.au/primo_library/libweb/action/search.do?vid=SGA
The SGA library online catalogue allows students to Sign In, My Account shows student’s current library record including all books on loan, Renew your borrowed books online before the due date, also Search and Request all books in the SGA library, even if unavailable due to high demand from students. Students can Request books when all books are on loan to other students. When the requested book is returned to the SGA library, the student who requested the book receives an email immediately to pick up the book from the SGA library. View your library record online 24/7 at the above web link for SGA library.
And also CSU Library online:
http://student.csu.edu.au/library - CSU Library Services including Primo Search & Subject Reserve online with 24/7 access, online and video tutorials in research skills, finding journal articles for assignments, topic analysis, download Endnote referencing program and many other online library services to help you successfully complete your assignments for all CSU courses. (http://trove.nla.gov.au/)
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ - Powerful search engine from National Library of Australia to access many different online resources on any subject from one search.
Contact Details for renewing loans, locating books and other information: SGA Melbourne Library:
Marian Lees - Director, Library Services Ph: (03) 9935 7921
Email: [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
Library Help:
http://student.csu.edu.au/library/help-contacts Friendly and quick assistance is available. Ask for help finding information and navigating the library's extensive eResources.
Online Tutorials
http://student.csu.edu.au/library/study-research/training-tutorials-videos
Learn how to:
- usePrimo Search to find eReserve material and journal articles
- searchjournal databases and web resources for information for your assessments
- identifyappropriate sources of information and peer reviewed material, and evaluate resources.
Bookmark your Subject Library Resource Guide
Subject Library Guides are a great way to get started with research. Each online guide is tailored to a specific area of study, including Accounting, Business & Information Technology outlining how to research in your area and where to look for information. http://libguides.csu.edu.au/
Academic Learning Support Assistance:
Visit the learning support website for advice about assignment preparation, academic reading and note-taking, referencing, and preparing for exams at: http://student.csu.edu.au/study (http://student.csu.edu.au/study%E2%80%8B)
Queries regarding the content of this subject should be directed to your subject lecturer.
Recommended student timecommitment
This subject is an 8 point subject. The CSU Subject Policy states that a standard 8 point subject should require you to spend up to 160 hours engaged in the learning and teaching activities.
These activities include the time spent in preparation for assessment, including study for examinations, tests, and assignment preparation
Each week you should spend around 9-11 hours studying this subject - obviously some weeks may require more time than others, depending on how you work - but the following is a guide for your information:
Reading text and other readings and watching videos 3.0 hours
Preparation of answers to topic review questions 2.0 hours
Participation in weekly face-to-face classes 3.0 hours
Preparation of assessment items 3.0 hours
Assessment Items
Essential requirements to pass this subject
You must obtain at least 50% in both the examination and the total mark in order to pass or gain a higher grade in this subject. You must pass the exam to pass the subject.
Additional pass/fail requirements:
To be eligible for the grade of AA or AE you must have submitted all assessment items including the final exm. If you choose not to complete an assessment item or do not sit the final exam then you will not be granted an AA or an AE grade.
Items
Item No. |
Title |
Value |
Due Date* |
Return Date** |
1 |
Assignment 1 |
10% |
19-Mar-2019 |
09-Apr-2019 |
2 |
Research Project |
10% |
09-Apr-2019 |
03-May-2019 |
3 |
Assignment 3 |
20% |
14-May-2019 |
06-Jun-2019 |
4 |
Exam |
60% |
Variable |
- |
* Due date is the last date for assessment items to be received at the University
** Applies only to assessment items submitted by the due date
Assessment item 1
Assignment 1
Value: 10%
Due Date: 19-Mar-2019 Return Date: 09-Apr-2019 Length:
Submission method options: Alternative submission method
Task
QUESTION1 Probability
Show all calculations/reasoning
Student guide to marks: 29 – 4 for a, 6 for b1, 2 each for b2-b6, 6 for c, 3 for d
- Whatis the meaning of the term 'expected value', and what does it measure? How is it computed for a discrete probability distribution? Demonstrate your answer with a practical example.
- Considerthe following record of daily sales of loaves of sourdough bread over the last 100 days.
- Copy the above table into Excel and using formulas complete the missing column figures (notethat the 5th and 6th columns refer to cumulative probability distributions) while the last 2 columns contain variance calculations. All cells (except for cols 1 and 2) are to contain formulas so no Answer the questions below by highlighting the answers in your table, and simply repeating these figures against answers 2 to 6. After answering the questions below paste your Excel model into Word, twice, once showing the output and once showing formulas (with row and column headings).
- Whatwere the average daily sales? Highlight your answer in the spreadsheet and repeat it here.
- Whatwas the probability of selling 2 or more loaves on any one day? Highlight your answer in the spreadsheet and repeat it
- Whatwas the probability of selling 3 or less? Highlight your answer in the spreadsheet and repeat it
- Whatis the variance of the distribution? Highlight your answer in the spreadsheet and repeat it
- Whatis the standard deviation? Highlight your answer in the spreadsheet and repeat it here.
- Alot of 10,000 parts, produced on four machines, was graded according to three These results were:
What is the probability that a part selected at random:
- Was produced by Machine W and should be reworked?
- Was produced by Machine Z and is not satisfactory?
- Was produced by Machine Y and should be scrapped?
- Needs to bereworked?
- Needs to be scrapped given that it was produced by machine W?
- The average sales of apples is 4000 with a standard deviation of
- What is the probability that sales will be greater than 4250 apples?
- What is the probability that sales will be less than 3600 apples?
- What is the probability that sales will be less than 4500 apples?
QUESTION2 ResearchQuestion
Student guide to marks: 6 – 2 for each
Thefollowingquestioninvolveslearning/employingresearchskillsinsearchingoutdata on theInternet
Search the Internet for the latest figures you can find to answer the following questions:
- What is the average age of the Australian population?
- What is the average age to die in Australia (for both men and women)?
- What percentage of people work in Australia?
QUESTION3 StatisticalDecisionMakingandQualityControl Show allcalculations/reasoning
Student guide to marks: 15 – 3 for a1, 4 for a2, 8 for b (2 each)
- A company wishes to set control limits for monitoring the direct labour time to produce an important Over the past the mean time has been 30 hours with a standard deviation of 6 hours and is believed to be normally distributed. The company proposes to collect random samples of 64 observations to monitor labour time.
- If management wishes to establish x-bar control limits covering the 95% confidence interval, calculate the appropriate UCL and
- If management wishes to use smaller samples of 9 observations calculate the control limits covering the 95% confidence
- Hypothesistesting
The average age of employees at Sturt Ltd is 42. In a retrenchment, 49 persons were laid-off. Their mean age was 45. The Equal Opportunity Commission claimed that Sturt was guilty of age discrimination because it had laid-off older than average workers.
Is the information sufficient evidence to support the claim of age discrimination if s (sigma) =
- years? Use a =05.
- Show the null and alternative
- Calculate the critical value (actual value or Z-value)
- Sketch the situation, showing the critical value and the reject region (in terms of actual values or Z-values).
- Explain your conclusion
END OF ASSIGNMENT 1
Rationale
This assessment task will assess the following learning outcome/s:
- be able to demonstrate problem-solving skills in assessing, organising, summarising and interpreting relevant data for decision making
- be able to apply probability concepts to decision
- be able to demonstrate understanding of the application of statistical hypothesis testingto decisions, with particular emphasis on quality control and interpreting the significance of regression coefficients in cost
Marking criteria and standards
Assessment Item 1
The criteria described below will no apply to all parts of all questions but describe the standards expected where the question requirements are appropriate. It is expected that all students will complete their own work with no collusion with other students.
Criteria |
High distinction |
Distinction |
Credit |
Pass |
Apply probability concepts to decision making |
Laws of probability well understood and applied without error to decision problems. |
Laws of probability well understood and mostly applied without error to decision problems. |
Laws of probability understood and applied appropriately to decision problems. |
Laws of probability mostly understood and mostly applied appropriately to decision problems. |
Assess, organise, summarise and interpret data |
Search the internet for appropriate data and summarise into tables and interpret meaningfully. |
Search the internet for appropriate data and summarise into tables and interpret . |
Search the internet for appropriate data and summarise into tables that can be interpreted meaningfully. |
Search the internet and find appropriate data and summarise into tables that can be interpreted. |
Apply statistical hypothesis testing to decisions with some emphasis on quality control |
Use of sample data to determine whether a statistical process is in control, with complete understanding of the relevant use of Z scores and t scores. |
Use of sample data to determine whether a statistical process is in control, with mostly good understanding of the relevant use of Z scores and t scores. |
Use of sample data to determine whether a statistical process is in control, with some understanding of the distinction between the use of Z scores and t scores. |
Use of sample data to determine whether a statistical process is in control, with some understanding of the use of Z scores but less understanding of the use of t scores. |
Apply decision theory to business situations |
Apply decision criteria correctly to situations of varying degrees of uncertainty, and correct revision of probabilities to assess the value of information. |
Apply decision criteria mostly correctly to situations of varying degrees of uncertainty, and mostly correct revision of probabilities to assess the value of information. |
Apply decision criteria appropriately to situations of varying degrees of uncertainty, and some correct revision of probabilities to assess the value of information. |
Apply decision criteria somewhat correctly to situations of varying degrees of uncertainty, but minimal ability to revise probabilities to assess the value of information. |
Presentation
You should refer to the marking criteria for each assessment item. You should also follow the directions given in each question.
Requirements:
- Present answers in the same sequence as the questions
- The front page of your assessment should consist of :
- subject code and subject name
- your name and student number
- assessment item number
- Other pages should include:
- statement of academic integrity
- list of questions attempted
- student name and number on each page submitted
- pages should be numbered
- bibliography on last page
Assessment item 2
Research Project Value: 10%
Due Date: 09-Apr-2019
Return Date: 03-May-2019
Submission method options: Alternative submission method
Task
The following collaborative research project aims to advise Medium-large Enterprise Managers regarding Software Tools that support corporate decision-making.
The project requires you to work in groups, each group consisting of 3(min) to 5(max) students. Please confirm your group composition and the topic of your selection with your lecturer.
Sub Task |
Marks allocation |
Research 1-2 commonly used Software Tools that support corporate decision-making through modelling and analysis. Describe the growth of such tools in the past decade. It’s desirable to focus on an industry or organisation of your choice like Transport, Retail, Health Service or others. You can use graphs, tables, case studies, as you deem fit, to present your case(s). |
3 |
List and briefly illustrate at least 2 features of commonly used Software Tools that support decision-making. These features can include: Statistical decision making and quality control, forecasting, simulation, inventory management, project management or any other area(s) of interest for the industry or organisation you have chosen. |
3 |
Collective reflection on the group process, outlining team formation, communication, task allocation, peer review and conflict management. |
2 |
Professionally presented and suitably referenced report, in your own words. |
2 |
Number of submissions from each group - 1
Report length – 1500 words (max – excluding references, tables and graphs)
FeelfreetousethisarticleforinitialintroductiontoBusinessIntelligence(BI) https://www.strategymrc.com/report/business-intelligence-bi-market.
Making presentations and working in teams are important professional skills. As a graduate accountant with a Master’s degree you are expected to be able to justify and communicate accounting advice and ideas in diverse collaborative contexts. In this assessment, you are developing and demonstrating some of these skills.
Yourresearchshouldincludeatleast3references,suchastheprofessionalbodyarticles as well as text books and peer reviewed academic journals. Vendor websites are not appropriate sources of information for this task. Use appropriate referencing in your report.
Guidance for effective collaborative work is available in Resources. Only one team member, from each group, need submit the report.
Rationale
This assessment task will assess the following learning outcome/s:
- be able to demonstrate problem-solving skills in assessing, organising, summarising and interpreting relevant data for decision making
- be able to apply decision theory to business
Marking criteria and standards
Criteria |
High Distinction |
Distinction |
Credit |
Pass |
Demonstrate problem solving skills in building criteria, assessing, organising and summarising and interpreting relevant data for decision making. |
Group has generated a range of innovative information criteria. Demonstrate high-level research skills working in a highly- motivated group to find and generate needed information. Demonstrate high-level analysis skills to identify additional information needed. |
Group has generated some meaningful information criteria. Demonstrate reasonably high-level research skills working in a mostly motivated group to find and generate needed information. Demonstrate reasonably high-level analysis skills to identify additional information needed. |
Group has generated some appropriate information criteria. Demonstrate reasonably competent research skills working in a somewhat motivated group to find and generate needed information. Demonstrate reasonably competent analysis skills to identify additional information needed. |
Group has generated some information criteria. Demonstrate average-level research skills working in a group to find and generate needed information. Demonstrate average-level analysis skills to identify additional information needed. |
Ability to articulate key performance criteria of successful teams and evaluate group performance accordingly. |
The individual can articulate the key performance criteria of successful teams and evaluate the team performance accordingly. |
The individual can state most of the key performance criteria of successful teams and draw related connections to the group performance. |
The individual can state some of the key performance criteria of successful teams and draw related connections to the group performance. |
The individual can state some of the key performance criteria of successful teams and draw at least one connection to the group performance. |
Professional communication in the form of a report. Appropriate resources and referencing. |
Excellent group participation and communication of the research findings demonstrating scholarly understanding of the issues involved via knowledgeable and engaging report. A wide range of resources used and referenced. |
Good group participation and communication of the research findings demonstrating a reasonable understanding of the issues involved via informative and engaging report. A number of resources used and referenced. |
Fair group participation and communication of the research findings demonstrating some understanding of the issues involved via average report. One or more resources used, not all resources referenced. |
Some group participation and communication of the research findings demonstrating lower level understanding of the issues involved via weaker report to other students in lecture group. One resource used. |
Assessment item 3
Assignment 3
Value: 20%
Due Date: 14-May-2019
Return Date: 06-Jun-2019
Submission method options: Alternative submission method
Task
QUESTION1 DecisionAnalysis
Student guide to marks: 20 – 4 for a, 2 for b and 14 for c (2 for each of the 7)
Show all calculations to support your answers.
- Describe the advantage in using a payoff matrix to analyse Explain the steps required in developing such a matrix.
- What advantage do decision trees provide and in what situations are they preferred to a payoff matrix?
- George Goleb is considering the purchase of two types of industrial The ROB1 is a large robot capable of performing a variety of tasks, including welding and painting. The ROB1 is a smaller and slower robot, but it has all the capabilities of ROB1. The robots will be used to perform a variety of repair operations on large industrial equipment. Of course, George can always do nothing and not buy any robots.
The market for the repair operation could be either favourable or unfavourable. If the market is favourable ROB1 is expected to return $50,000 profit and ROB2 $30,000 profit. If the market is unfavourable ROB1 is expected to lead to a loss of $40,000 and ROB2 to a loss of $20,000.
- Construct a payoff matrix showing the 3 possible alternatives and the associated profits or losses under the 2 market
- Showing all calculations, what is the optimum action and its expected payoff if George is an optimist?
- Showing all calculations, what is the optimum action and its expected payoff if George is a pessimist?
- Showing all calculations, what is the optimum action and its expected payoff if George follows the Laplace criterion?
- Showing all calculations, what is the optimum action and its expected payoff if George uses the criterion of regret?
- If George believes that the probability of a favourable market is 6, showing all calculations determine the optimum action and expected return.
- What is the expected value of perfect information?
QUESTION2 Value ofinformation
Student guide to marks: 20 – 10 for a, 2 for b, 6 for c, 2 for d
Showallcalculationstosupportyouranswers.Youmayfollowthemethodsshowninthe mp4onValueofInfoforawaytoanswerthisquestionifyouwish.
Round all probability calculations to 2 decimal places.
Referring to Q1c, Recall the optimum action based on expected values was to purchase ROB1 with an EMV of $14,000.
George Goleb is considering the possibility of conducting a survey on the market potential for industrial equipment repair using robots. The cost of the survey is $5,000.
The market survey results can be classified as positive or negative. Given past experience with the market survey personnel, the conditional probabilities are p(positive signal|favourable market = 0.9 and p(negative signal|unfavourable market) = 0.8.
- Revise the prior probabilities of 6 and 0.4 in light of these likely survey results.
- What is the posterior probability of a favourable market given a positive survey result?
- Calculate the EVSI and
- What is the maximum the firm should pay for the market survey?
QUESTION3 Simulation
Student guide to marks: 20 – 10 for a, 5 for b, 5 for c
Thisisaworkintegratedassessmentitem.Thetasksaresimilartowhatwouldbecarried out in theworkplace.
You have just been hired as an analyst to assist the manager of ABC airlines. Your first assignment is to examine and report on the profitability and policies of the airline.
ABC Airlines flies a six-passenger commuter flight once a day to Myrtle Beach. A non-refundable one-way fare with a reservation costs $79.
The daily demand and probability distribution for this flight are shown below along with the probability distribution of no-shows. A no-show has a reservation but does not arrive at the gate and forfeits the fare.
If there are not enough seats for a passenger at the gate ABC Airlines refunds his or her fare and also provides $50 compensation. The fixed cost for each flight is $350, regardless of the number of passengers.
- Setup a simulation model and calculate ABC’s profit each day for a month (30 days) and the average profit per There are to be no numbers in the model (only in the data section), and only formulas in the model. Print in WORD the output and then the formulas.
Below is a partial template to help you:
- ABC would like to investigate the profitability of varying the fare and the compensation for over booking. What is your recommendation?
- Write report with your comments on the profitability of the airline and any recommendations you may have for (no more than 300 words but you may also include any variations in your spreadsheet to demonstrate your points). Address your report to the manager and sign off.
QUESTION4 RegressionAnalysis
Student guide to marks: 20 – 12 for a, 4 for b and 4 for c
Pike College is a small business school that offers an MBA program. The main entrance criterion for admission to the MBA program is the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) score (maximum score =800). The following table provides the GPAs (Grade Point Averages) of 12 students who have graduated recently along with their GMAT scores and ages.
Student |
GPA |
GMAT |
AGE |
1 |
3.7 |
660 |
34 |
2 |
3 |
580 |
29 |
3 |
3.25 |
450 |
24 |
4 |
4 |
710 |
39 |
5 |
3.52 |
550 |
30 |
6 |
2.83 |
430 |
27 |
7 |
3.8 |
540 |
35 |
8 |
4 |
590 |
42 |
9 |
3.65 |
720 |
24 |
10 |
3.47 |
480 |
30 |
11 |
3.33 |
520 |
27 |
12 |
3.75 |
670 |
28 |
- Using Excel, perform three regression analyses to regress GPA against GMAT score, then againstAge, then against both of them Paste your results into Word. State the cost equation from each. Analyse and comment on the results of each regression as you perform it and determine the best one to use as a basis for future use.
- Ifyou had to settle for the results of a simple regression, which one would you use and why? Explain any reservations you might have with your
- Anew graduate student has a GMAT score of 600 and is 29 years Using the multiple regression output what is this student’s predicted GPA?
QUESTION5 CVPAnalysis
Guide to student marks: 20: 6 for a, 4 for b (2+2), 4 for c, 6 for d
- ProductA sells for $12 per The variable cost is $6 per unit. Fixed costs are $1,200. What is the breakeven point in (i) units, and (ii) dollars?
- How many units are required to earn a target level of profit before tax of $600? What is the margin ofsafety?
- Whatprofit would be earned by selling 250 units?
- A second product B is added, selling for $20 per unit with a variable cost of $8. Total fixed costs for both products are $5,200. A and B are sold in the ratio of 2 of A to 1 of Given a tax rate of 30c in the dollar, how many units of each product are required to earn a profit after tax of $1,400?
END OF ASSIGNMENT 3
Rationale
This assessment task will assess the following learning outcome/s:
- beable to apply decision theory to business
- beable to explain the use of simulation in complex
- be able to demonstrate understanding of the application of statistical hypothesis testingto decisions, with particular emphasis on quality control and interpreting the significance of regression coefficients in cost
- beable to apply cost-volume-profit analysis and linear programming to product mix decisions.
Marking criteria and standards
Assessment Item 3
The criteria described below will no apply to all parts of all questions but describe the standards expected where the question requirements are appropriate. It is expected that all students will complete their own work with no collusion with other students.
Criteria |
High distinction |
Distinction |
Credit |
Pass |
Apply probability concepts to decision making |
Completely correct application of rational decision making techniques to business problems including ability to evaluate further information prior to decisions |
Mostly correct application of rational decision making techniques to business problems including the correct evaluation of further information prior to decisions |
Some difficulty in correctly applying rational decision making techniques to business problems including somewhat correct evaluation of further information prior to decisions |
Weakness in applying rational decision making techniques to business problems and difficulty in evaluating further information prior to decisions |
Use simulation in complex decisions |
Completely correct use of Excel to simulate decision situations involving probabilistic states of nature |
Mostly correct use of Excel to simulate decision situations involving probabilistic states of nature |
Few errors in use of Excel to simulate decision situations involving probabilistic states of nature |
Some weakness in use of Excel to simulate decision situations involving probabilistic states of nature |
Apply statistical hypothesis testing in regression |
Completely correct application of t- tests to determine significance of independent variables |
Mostly correct application of t- tests to determine significance of independent variables |
Some difficulty in correctly applying t-tests to determine significance of independent variables |
Weakness exhibited in undertanding the application of t-tests to determine significance of independent variables |
Apply CVP |
Completely |
Mostly correct |
Correct use of |
Mostly correct |
analysis to product mix decisions |
correct use of CVP analysis to single and multi-product firms |
use of CVP analysis to single and multi-product firms |
CVP analysis to single product firms but some difficulty with multi-product firms |
use of CVP analysis to single product firms but less confident with multi-product firms |
Presentation
You should refer to the marking criteria for each assessment item. You should also follow the directions given in each question.
Requirements:
- Present answers in the same sequence as the questions
- The front page of your assessment should consist of :
- subject code and subject name
- your name and student number
- assessment item number
- Other pages should include:
- statement of academic integrity
- list of questions attempted
- student name and number on each page submitted
- pages should be numbered
- bibliography on last page
Assessment item 4
Exam Value: 60%
Due Date: Variable Date
Return Date: -
Submission method options: N/A - submission not required/applicable
Task
The examination consists of :
- 30multiple choice questions selected from the learning outcomes for the whole subject.
- 2long answer questions covering the following learning outcomes:
- to be able to apply CVP analysis and linear programming to product mix decisions
- to be able to solve scheduling problems (with particular emphasis on project management networks)
All questions must be answered.
A final exam that is identical in structure to the sample exam will be scheduled during the exam period. The sample exam can be found here: https://doms.csu.edu.au and the solutions.
Rationale
This assessment task will assess the following learning outcome/s:
- be able to demonstrate problem-solving skills in assessing, organising, summarising and interpreting relevant data for decision making
- be able to apply decision theory to business
- be able to explain the use of simulation in complex
- be able to apply probability concepts to decision
- be able to demonstrate understanding of the application of statistical hypothesis testing to decisions, with particular emphasis on quality control and interpreting the significance of regression coefficients in cost
- be able to use accepted time-series forecasting
- be able to apply cost-volume-profit analysis and linear programming to product mix decisions.
- be able to solve scheduling
Marking criteria and standards
The criteria described below will not apply to all parts of all questions but describe the standards expected where the question requirements are appropriate.
Criteria |
High distinction |
Distinction |
Credit |
Pass |
Multiple choice questions Students will be expected to answer multiple choice questions by selecting the best option from five available choices to demonstrate their ability to: -Apply problem- solving skills in assessing, organising, summarising and interpreting relevant data for decisions -Apply decision theory to business situations -Apply probability concepts to decision making -Apply statistical hypothesis testing to quality control and regression analysis -Use time series forecasting methods |
Attain a cumulative mark between 85% and 100% for this section of the examination. You will not have more than four incorrect answers in this component of the examination. Demonstrate an exceptional and consistently high level of knowledge and understanding across the complete range of topics in this subject. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 75% and 84% for this section of the examination. You will not have more than seven incorrect answers in this component of the examination. Demonstrate a comprehensive high level of knowledge and understanding across the majority of topics in this subject. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 65% and 74% for this section of the examination. You will not have more than eleven incorrect answers in this component of the examination. Demonstrate a sound level of knowledge and understanding across the majority of topics in this subject. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 50% and 64% for this section of the examination. You will not have more than fifteen incorrect answers in this component of the examination. Demonstrate a basic knowledge and understanding across at least 50% of topics in this subject. |
Short answer questions Students will be required to demonstrate their ability to -Apply CVP analysis and linear programming to product mix decisions -Solve project scheduling problems |
Attain a cumulative mark between 85% and 100% for this section of the examination. No less than 34 marks in this section indicates that you have answered the two questions to a high or exceptional level. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 75% and 84% for this section of the examination. No less than 30 marks in this section indicates that you have answered the two questions to a high level or above. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 65% and 74% for this section of the examination. No less than 26 marks in this section indicates that you have answered at least one question to a high level and one to a basic level. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 50% and 65% for this section of the examination. No less than 20 marks in this section indicates that you have answered at least one question to a basic level and one to a limited level |
Short answer questions Students will be required to demonstrate their ability to -Apply CVP analysis and linear programming to product mix decisions -Solve project scheduling problems |
Attain a cumulative mark between 85% and 100% for this section of the examination. No less than 34 marks in this section indicates that you have answered the two questions to a high or exceptional level. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 75% and 84% for this section of the examination. No less than 30 marks in this section indicates that you have answered the two questions to a high level or above. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 65% and 74% for this section of the examination. No less than 26 marks in this section indicates that you have answered at least one question to a high level and one to a basic level. |
Attain a cumulative mark between 50% and 65% for this section of the examination. No less than 20 marks in this section indicates that you have answered at least one question to a basic level and one to a limited level |
Assessment Information
Academic integrity
Academic integrity means acting with honesty, fairness and responsibility, and involves observing and maintaining ethical standards in all aspects of academic work. This subject assumes that you understand what constitutes plagiarism, cheating and collusion. If you are a new student we expect you to complete the modules called Academic Integrity at CSU. (https://interact2.csu.edu.au/webapps/blackboard/execute/ courseMain?course_id=_16412_1&task=true&src=)
CSU treats plagiarism seriously. We may use Turnitin to check your submitted work for plagiarism. You can use Turnitin to check for plagiarism (http://student.csu.edu.au/library/ integrity/referencing-at-csu/checking) in your assessments before submission.
Referencing
Referencing is an important component of academic work. All assessment tasks should be appropriately referenced. The specific details of the referencing requirements are included in each assessment task description. Get referencing style guides and help (http://student.csu.edu.au/library/integrity/referencing-at-csu) to use for your assessments.
How to submit your assessment items
Online submission process
You must submit your assignment via Turnitin in Word or PDF file format only. Any submissions in other file types (such as Excel) are not supported by Turnitin, and hence will not be marked.
Postal submission process
Not allowed.
Hand delivered submission process
Not allowed
Alternative submission process
Assessment 4 collected in the examination room.
Extensions
It is best to complete assessment items by the due date. However, when something unavoidable comes up an extension may be possible. The following principles are used when processing extensions
- Forin-session assessment items, an extension request for up to three (3) calendar days can be made by emailing your subject coordinator directly before the due
In your email please state the reason why you need more time as well as what precisely you are requesting. Supporting documentation is not required. If an extension is requested in the above format with a valid reason and your request does not disadvantage other students, the extension will be approved.
Extensions cannot be granted for on-line tests, as these have to be done within a specific time frame, after which the answers are released to the class automatically.
- Forin-session assessment items, extension requests of more than three (3) calendar days must be made via the special consideration form: https://apps.csu.edu.au/ specialcons/. (https://apps.csu.edu.au/specialcons/)The request must be made before the due date and must include supporting Acceptable reasons are given in the Special Consideration Policy<https://policy.csu.edu.au/ view.current.php?id=00298>. Each request will be considered on a case by case basis. The request may not be granted. The maximum extension possible will be seven (7) calendar days.
- If you receive an extension, then you should expect the assessment item and its feedbackto be returned If you submit later than the extended due date you will receive late penalties as per guidelines below.
- Unlessyour extension permits otherwise, submissions received 10 days after the original due date will receive
- Forend of session exams, you can request a supplementary exam
via https://apps.csu.edu.au/specialcons/. (https://apps.csu.edu.au/specialcons/)This request must be made within 3 working days of the date of exam and must include supporting documentation. Acceptable reasons are given in the Special Consideration Policy <https://policy.csu.edu.au/view.current.php?id=00298>. For medical issues, a CSU medical certificate is required. If the supplementary exam (SX) is awarded then your exam is moved to the next examination period. In order to preserve exam integrity and manage the logistics of exams, the timing of a supplementary exam is heavily restricted.
How to apply for special consideration
Academic regulations provide for special consideration to be given if you suffer misadventure or extenuating circumstances during the session (including the examination period) which prevents you from meeting acceptable standards or deadlines. Find the form on the Student Portal Special Consideration, Misadventure, Advice and Appeals (http://student.csu.edu.au/ study/academic-advice) page.
Penalties for latesubmission
The penalty for late submission of an assessment task (without obtaining the Subject Coordinator's approval for an extension) will be:
10% deduction per day, including weekends, of the maximum marks allocated for the assessment task, i.e. 1 day late 10% deduction, or 2 days late 20% deduction.
An example of the calculation would be:
Maximum marks allocated = 20
Penalty for one day late = 2 marks (so, a score of 18/20 becomes 16/20 and a score of 12/20
becomes 10/20).
If an assignment is due on a Friday but is not submitted until the following Tuesday, then the penalty will be four days (40% deduction or 8 marks in the example above).
Submissions more than 10 days late will be acknowledged as received but will not be marked.
Resubmission
Under normal circumstances resubmission of assessment items will not be accepted for any of the assessments required in this subject.
Feedback processes
Feedback is provided or Assessment items1 -3 via comments on individual submissions and solutions to Items 1 and 3 provided.
Assessment return
You should normally expect your marked assessment to be returned to you within 15 working days of the due date, if your assessment was submitted on time. If you submitted your assessment on time but not received it back by the return date, you should make enquiries in the first instance to the subject coordinator.
Student Feedback & Learning Analytics
Evaluation of subjects
CSU values constructive feedback and relies on high response rates to Subject Experience Surveys (SES) to enhance teaching. Responses are fed back anonymously to Subject Coordinators and Heads of Schools to form the basis for subject enhancement and recognition of excellence in teaching. Schools report on their evaluation data; highlighting good practice and documenting how problems have been addressed. You can view a summary of survey results via the Student Portal SES Results (https://student.csu.edu.au/study/subject- experience-survey-results) page.
We strongly encourage you to complete your online Subject Experience Surveys. You will be provided with links to your surveys via email when they open three [3] weeks before the end of session.
Changes and actions based on student feedback
Provision for exam answers to be made in exam paper to speed up the process.
Learning analytics
Learning Analytics refers to the collection and analysis of student data for the purpose of improving learning and teaching. It enables the University to personalise the support we
provide our students. All Learning Analytics activities will take place in accordance with the CSU Learning Analytics Code of Practice. For more information, please visit CSU's Learning Analytics (http://www.csu.edu.au/division/student-learning/home/analytics-and-evaluations/ learning-analytics) website.
Data about your activity in the Interact2 site and other learning technologies for this subject will be recorded and can be reviewed by teaching staff to inform their communication, support and teaching practices.
Services & Support
Your Student Portal (http://student.csu.edu.au/) tells you can how you can seek services and support. These include study, admin, residential, library, careers, financial, and personal support.
Develop your studyskills
Develop your study skills (https://student.csu.edu.au/study/skills) with our free study services. We have services online, on campus and near you. These services can help you develop your English language, literacy, and numeracy.
Library Services
CSU Library (https://student.csu.edu.au/library) provides access to the eBooks, journal articles, books, and multimedia resources needed for your studies and assessments. Get the most out of these resources by contacting Library staff either online or in person, or make use of the many Library Resource Guides, videos and online workshops available.
CSU Policies &Regulations
This subject outline should be read in conjunction with all academic policies and regulations,
e.g. Student Academic Misconduct Policy, Assessment Policy - Coursework Subjects, Assessment Principles Policy, Special Consideration Policy, Academic Progress Policy, Academic Communication with Students Policy, Student Charter, etc.
Please refer to the collated list of policies and regulations relevant to studying your subject(s) (http://student.csu.edu.au/administration/policies-regulations-subjects) which includes links to the CSU Policy Library (http://www.csu.edu.au/about/policy) - the sole authoritative source of official academic and administrative policies, procedures, guidelines, rules and regulations of the University.
Subject Outline as a reference document
This Subject Outline is an accurate and historical record of the curriculum and scope of your subject. CSU's Subject Outlines Policy (https://policy.csu.edu.au/view.current.php?id=00267) requires that you retain a copy of the Subject Outline for future use such as for accreditation purposes.