MAT 540 Week 5 100 Out of 100 Jan data

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. 

   Question 2
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. 

 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 3
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
 
 	 	 
·         Question 4
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
 
 	 	 
·         Question 5
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
 
 	 	 
·         Question 6
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
 
 	 	 
·         Question 7
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 8
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. 

 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 9
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
 
 	 	 
·         Question 10
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 11
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 12
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

 
No. of breakdowns per week
Probability
Cumulative probability
0
.10
.10
1
.25
.35
2
.36
.71
3
.22
.93
4
.07
1.00


 

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 13
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Answer
 	 	 
S

 
 	 	 
·         Question 14
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 15
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 16
0 out of 5 points
 	 
Incorrect
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Answer
 	 	 
 	 	 	 
·         Question 17
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 18
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
 rob

 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:  

 
Yield, bushels per acre
Probability
350
.10
400
.18
450
.50
500
.22


 

The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

 

What is the expected yield of the crop?
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 19
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 

 
 
 
·         
·         Question 20
·         
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Consider the following graph of sales. 

 

 

 

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 21
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 22
0 out of 5 points
Incorrect
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 23
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 24
0 out of 5 points
 	 
Incorrect
Consider the following demand and forecast.

 
Period
Demand
Forecast
1
7
10
2
12
15
3
18
20
4
22
 


 

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 25
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints. 

 
xi
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
p(xi)
.10
.15
.18
.20
.20
.10
.07


 

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  2.83
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 26
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  .9772
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 	 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 27
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. 

            

Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  4.38
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 28
0 out of 5 points
 	 
Incorrect
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

 

            

 

The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/x.gif  .0.0006
 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 29
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  

 

                        

 

If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 30
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  

 

                        

 

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary. 
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  26
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 	 	 
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.  What is the simulated value?
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  570
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 32
5 out of 5 points
Correct
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

 

                        Year    Demand           Forecast
2001
16
18
2002
20
19
2003
18
24
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  3
Correct Answer:
 
E
 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 33
5 out of 5 points
Correct
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

 

            

 

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Answer
 	 	 
S
 
 	 	 
·         Question 34
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product 

 
Month
Actual Demand
March
20
April
25
May
40
June
35
July
30
August
45


 

 

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
 	 	 
 
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 35
5 out of 5 points
Correct
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

 
Month
Actual Demand
March
20
April
25
May
40
June
35
July
30
August
45


 

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  31.6
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 	 	 
·         Question 36
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. 

 

            

 

What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point. 
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  .94
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 37
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

 
Year
Sales
2001
2
2002
4
2003
10
2004
8
2005
14
2006
18
2007
17
2008
20


 

 

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
 
 	 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 38
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  91
Correct Answer:
 
 
 	 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 39
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 

            

 

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
 	 	 
S
 
 
 	 	 
·         Question 40
5 out of 5 points
 	 
Correct
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

 

            

 

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Answer
 	 	 
Selected Answer:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/check.gif  230
Correct Answer: